The answer to the title is "not much". Every single day I check the currency exchange rates for the Korean won and the Japanese yen. I also check airfares for travel to Seoul and Tokyo. About the only thing that I can see as a pattern is that prices go up and they go down. There is no pattern that will help you predict the best time to go. I have fortunately been very lucky and timed my trips when the exchange rate was at the peak.
As far as exchange rates, all countries want their currencies a little on the weak side in order to encourage exports and welcome in travelers. When one country does a monetary change then most other currencies get stronger and that forces them to make changes to make their currency weaker. It is a never ending race to the bottom.
After I booked my trip to Japan the exchange went as high as $1 to 125.7 yen. During my trip in October and November the rate was as high as 123.2 yen. Those were the best exchange rates in the past 10 years according to Yahoo Finance. Recently, the yen has traded as low as 111.2 yen. Should you panic if you have a trip planned to Japan? No!
Japan is currently having meetings to figure out how to devalue the yen. It will be difficult but the yen should start weakening later this year and that would make travel to Japan more affordable. I personally am planning on returning to Japan in October of 2017. I hope the exchange rate will be favorable the. But, even if the rate gets as low as $1 to 100, I am still going and it will still be affordable.
As far as airfares, I only check for the rates to Tokyo and Seoul for the October time frame. There could very well be some great sales now for other times of the year. But for that time frame, I have not found any discount airfares except on airlines that I do not want to fly on. I know that with patience, the cost will come down.
One of the things that I look at when I check for airfares is the amount of available seats on the overseas flight. Currently there are very few seats that are booked. That is a good sign that airfares will come down. I booked my trip to Japan at the end of May last year. Until that point there had not been any sales. However, for 3 days American Airlines was selling economy seats for $640. That was the best price that I saw all year! You might want to check around that time and see if there is a sale. Also, check places like Travelocity and the airline websites. Sometimes there can be quite a difference between the two. If they are the same, I would book directly with the airline.
Currently, American Airlines and United are offering seats in the $1750 range. The other airlines like Korean Air and ANA are even higher. You should easily be able to get something around $1000. So be patient, that extra $750 will pay for a 7 night stay at a business hotel like the Shinagawa Prince that I stayed at last year.
All of my airfare prices are for economy seats. I always book economy and then upgrade to the economy plus or whatever the airline likes to call it. I flew from Houston to Dallas and then from Dallas to Tokyo. The extra cost for 5 or 6 inches of extra legroom was $64.90 for the Dallas to Tokyo and the Tokyo to Dallas legs. That works out to about $5 extra per hour. You MUST upgrade if you can. I am a little over 6 foot tall and my knees never touched the seat in front of me, even when they were completely straightened out. I slept great!
So, to sum it up, don't panic. The exchange rate will improve and the airfares will come down. Even if they don't get back to last year's rates, just go any way. I have never had a regret about any vacation that I went on. However, I do have regrets for lots of "things" that I have purchased, used a couple times, and then let dust collect on them. I promise there is no dust collecting on my memories of Seoul or Tokyo.
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